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Hoe Joly Smoke

8yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 122

Kelso · Borders Carers Centre Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 189y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/11

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual chase winner who was a good third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. Made the most of a good opportunity back over hurdles when winning a 5-runner novice at Bangor (2½m) and he sets the standard for all he's not the most robust.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 28/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 127 · 3m1f214y GS 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/12/2024 · OR 127 par28/122OR 1273 @ Sandown 08/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 127 · 3m37y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/03/2025 · OR 127 par2 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 129 · 3m1f Goo 147 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 129 par25/102OR 1291 @ Cheltenham 15/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 131 · 2m4f44y Sft 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 131 par1 @ Cheltenham 13/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 131 · 2m4f127y GS 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 131 par13/121OR 1311 @ Kempton 21/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 131 · 3m Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 131 par2 @ Ayr 17/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 130 · 2m4f110y Sft 150 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 130 par17/042OR 1303 @ Newton Abbot 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 128 · 3m1f170y Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 128 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 122 · 2m3f123y Goo 154 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 122 par4/094OR 122projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee41st1st0
2026-05-13Newton Abbot32nd1st+1
2026-04-17Ayr26th4th+2
2026-02-21Kempton16th2nd+3
2025-12-13Cheltenham15th1st+3
2025-11-15Cheltenham13rd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1215/1117/044/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength72%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 3. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20245th5/287%50%-0.37
08/03/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
25/10/20253rd12/137%88%+0.51
15/11/20253rd9/153%82%+0.29
13/12/20255th11/271%56%-0.15
21/02/20266th7/163%58%-0.05
17/04/20266th9/488%38%-0.51
13/05/20262nd11/893%50%-0.43
04/09/20261st13/891%100%+0.09