3
Hopeless Dancer
5yo Gelding · 11-0
Kelso · Borders Carers Centre Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 189y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | Ludlow | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Ludlow | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Ffos Las | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Warwick | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-15 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 30% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 3. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 06/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |