3
Bold Light
9yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 114
Kelso · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Newcastle | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Musselburgh | 4 | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 01/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 31/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |