2
Continuance
5yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 121
Kelso · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Warwick | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Sandown | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Cheltenham | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/04/2025 | 15th | 8/1 | 58% | 7% | -0.51 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 03/01/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |