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4

Dream's Ka

4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 111

Kelso · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won pair of 2½m handicaps at Bangor/Uttoxeter this season. Progression came to a halt at the latter course on final start for Dan Skelton before being sold for only £7000 last month. Probably vulnerable off this mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Warwick 23/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m Goo 15423/0144 @ Chepstow 13/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 2m16y Sft 1545 @ Wincanton 05/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 97 · 1m7f50y Goo 158 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 97 par5/035OR 975 @ Plumpton 05/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 93 · 2m1f169y Goo 156 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 93 par5 @ Fakenham 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 90 · 2m4f1y Gd 154 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 90 par4/055OR 905 @ Bangor-on-Dee 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 92 · 2m3f123y Gd 155 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 92 par4 @ Warwick 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 104 · 2m3f Goo 156 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 104 par3/064OR 1044 @ Uttoxeter 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 107 · 2m3f207y Goo 157 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 107 par4 @ Uttoxeter 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 112 · 2m3f207y Gd 159 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 112 par24/074OR 112projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Uttoxeter48th9th−1
2026-06-28Uttoxeter41st2nd−1
2026-06-03Warwick42nd3rd−1
2026-05-16Bangor-on-Dee51st3rd−2
2026-05-04Fakenham52nd4th−2
2026-04-05Plumpton57th9th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/015/043/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
13/02/20265th28/10%0%0.00
05/03/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
05/04/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
04/05/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15
16/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
03/06/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
28/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
24/07/20268th4/179%22%-0.57