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8yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 105

Kelso · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course specialist who needed every yard of the trip to capitalise on a drop in grade in C&D hurdle in May. No show twice at Cartmel since but hopes pinned on a return to this track (record reads 3 wins and 5 placed efforts from 11 starts).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kelso 17/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 99 · 2m2f25y Gd 168 · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 99 par17/095OR 994 @ Kelso 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 105 · 2m51y Goo 163 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 105 par3 @ Kelso 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 105 · 2m4f189y Goo 151 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 105 par8/113OR 1053 @ Kelso 07/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 112 · 2m51y Sft 142 · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 112 par3 @ Musselburgh 01/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 111 · 2m3f171y Goo 152 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 111 par1/013OR 1112 @ Musselburgh 20/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 108 · 2m1f87y GS 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 108 par4 @ Kelso 20/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 106 · 2m6f151y Goo 160 · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 106 par20/044OR 1065 @ Kelso 24/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 104 · 2m4f189y Gd 168 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 104 par3 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 106 · 2m1f46y Gd 149 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 106 par18/073OR 106projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Cartmel39th9th0
2026-06-28Cartmel4−1
2026-05-24Kelso51st3rd−2
2026-04-20Kelso47th8th−1
2026-03-20Musselburgh29th8th+1
2026-02-28Kelso2+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/097/1220/0418/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength45%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
25/10/20252nd5/493%90%-0.03
08/11/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
07/12/20256th17/255%0%-0.55
01/01/20264th28/10%63%+0.63
20/03/20269th12/137%38%+0.02
20/04/20267th17/255%40%-0.15
24/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
18/07/20269th33/10%20%+0.20