IvyArcIvyArc
1

Loriko

5yo Gelding · 12-6 · OR 125

Kelso · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has thrived this summer, making it 4 wins from his last 5 starts in 5-runner handicap hurdle at Sedgefield (2½m, good) last week, leading after 2 out and staying on well to draw clear. Turned out under a penalty and fancied to be bang there this mood (also entered up later in week).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 2m87y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS25/1023 @ Ascot 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 126 · 2m3f63y Goo 157 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 126 par3 @ Hereford 20/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 125 · 2m3f147y Sft 160 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 125 par20/123OR 1254 @ Plumpton 06/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 123 · 1m7f195y Goo 158 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 123 par4 @ Huntingdon 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 2 · OR 121 · 2m4f145y Goo 158 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 121 par7/054OR 1214 @ Uttoxeter 04/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 121 · 1m7f168y Gd 163 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 121 par4 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 121 · 2m4f139y Gd 166 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 121 par18/074OR 1214 @ Market Rasen 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 125 · 2m125y Gd 166 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 125 par3 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 125 · 2m3f188y Goo 168 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 125 par9/093OR 125projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield31st1st0
2026-08-15Market Rasen41st2nd−1
2026-07-18Market Rasen42nd3rd−1
2026-06-04Uttoxeter41st2nd−1
2026-05-07Huntingdon41st2nd−1
2026-04-06Plumpton42nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/106/0418/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20253rd15/261%50%-0.11
21/11/20252nd7/491%67%-0.24
20/12/20256th14/126%29%+0.02
06/04/20262nd8/1196%75%-0.21
07/05/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
04/06/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
18/07/20262nd11/893%80%-0.13
15/08/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
09/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13