6
Starlyte
9yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 98
Kelso · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Cartmel | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kelso | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kelso | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Kelso | 1 | 4th | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-11-14 | Newcastle | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 200/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |