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Fairlawn Skipper

6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 108

Kelso · Weatherbys Racing Bank Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 133y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back on song on first start in a 0-100 when seeing off 8 rivals at Cartmel in July. Resumed winning ways at Newton Abbot (3¼m) 9 days ago before again running well when runner-up at Sedgefield on Monday. Interesting chasing debutant though drop back in trip not ideal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Uttoxeter 11/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 2m7f70y Gd 15811/0944 @ Ffos Las 16/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 1584 @ Newcastle 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 108 · 2m7f149y Goo 161 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 108 par30/104OR 1084 @ Kelso 18/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 108 · 2m4f189y Sft 158 · below its mark18/11/2025 · OR 108 par4 @ Perth 13/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 106 · 3m2f127y GS 167 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 106 par13/054OR 1064 @ Worcester 06/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 104 · 2m7f Gd 162 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 104 par5 @ Cartmel 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 2m6f31y Gd 168 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 100 par20/075OR 1004 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 108 · 3m2f105y Gd 167 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 108 par4 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 108 · 3m3f9y Goo 168 · below its mark14/09/2026 · OR 108 par14/094OR 108projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield42nd2nd0
2026-09-07Newton Abbot41st1st0
2026-08-31Cartmel40
2026-07-20Cartmel51st2nd−1
2026-06-06Worcester411th11th0
2026-05-13Perth49th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0918/1120/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20253rd13/266%50%-0.16
16/10/20253rd8/1196%0%-0.96
30/10/20253rd5/174%67%-0.07
18/11/20254th6/168%0%-0.68
13/05/20269th10/147%20%-0.27
06/06/202611th15/261%0%-0.61
20/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
07/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
14/09/20262nd11/893%50%-0.43