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Limerick Leader

9yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 100

Kelso · Weatherbys Racing Bank Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 133y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back under an attacking ride to capitalise on a reduced mark in a 7-runner event at Bangor earlier in the month and proved at least as good when following up in 3-runner event at Sedgefield (3¼m) last week. Back in trip but should get own way in front again so respected under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Stratford 20/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 2m3f98y Gd 156 · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 98 par20/074OR 984 @ Newton Abbot 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 2m4f216y Gd 151 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 98 par4 @ Sedgefield 04/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 2m3f65y Gd 157 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 98 par4/094OR 985 @ Southwell 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 3m60y Goo 167 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 98 par5 @ Newton Abbot 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 100 · 2m4f216y Goo 163 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 100 par23/065OR 1004 @ Newton Abbot 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 100 · 2m4f216y Goo 163 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 100 par5 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 3m1f170y Goo 164 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 98 par22/085OR 984 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 96 · 3m30y Gd 154 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 96 par4 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 96 · 3m2f59y Goo 158 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 96 par9/094OR 96projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield41st1st0
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee41st1st0
2026-08-22Newton Abbot54th5th−1
2026-07-13Newton Abbot43rd3rd0
2026-06-23Newton Abbot53rd4th−1
2026-06-09Southwell52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/079/0622/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/20252nd9/276%80%+0.04
21/08/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
04/09/20252nd9/488%80%-0.08
09/06/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
23/06/20263rd11/1094%50%-0.44
13/07/20263rd13/891%33%-0.58
22/08/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
04/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
09/09/20261st5/493%100%+0.07