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Rockstown Girl

8yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 108

Kelso · Weatherbys Racing Bank Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 5f 133y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair hurdler/chaser who got back to winning ways in handicap hurdle at Down Royal in March. Placed on next 3 outings and shaped as if still in good heart when sixth in maiden chase at Wexford in June. Respected but yard 1 from 32 with British runners so far. Engaged 3.30 Uttoxeter Tuesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -5.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 2m3f120y Goo 147 · HIGHER CLASS1/1113 @ Cheltenham 14/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 116 · 2m5f Sft 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 116 parBHA103 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 103 · 2m1f33y Sft 159 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 103 par20/01103OR 103BHA100 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 100 · 2m4f86y Goo 168 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 100 parBHA100 @ Wexford 10/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 100 · 2m3f100y Goo 168 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 100 par10/04100OR 100BHA103 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 103 · 2m4f90y Gd 159 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 103 parBHA106 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 106 · 2m2f185y Gd 153 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 106 par14/06106OR 106BHA103 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 103 · 2m3f110y Goo 159 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 103 par4 @ Uttoxeter 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 108 · 2m3f207y Goo 166 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 108 par15/094OR 108projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Uttoxeter47th7th0
2026-06-30WexfordBHA1036th14th−6
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA1063rd11th−7
2026-05-15KilbegganBHA1033rd11th−6
2026-04-10WexfordBHA1002nd9th−6
2026-03-17Down RoyalBHA1001st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1117/0314/0615/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20254th80/10%25%+0.25
14/11/202514th40/10%24%+0.24
20/01/20267th15/261%40%-0.21
17/03/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
10/04/20262nd11/271%93%+0.22
15/05/20263rd13/266%85%+0.19
14/06/20263rd9/276%82%+0.06
30/06/20266th6/168%62%-0.07
15/09/20267th12/137%45%+0.09