IvyArcIvyArc
2

Conquer The Breeze

7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 118

Kelso · In Memory Of Rossie Maitland-Carew Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

48%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been much improved since joining current yard, making it 4 wins from 5 starts in 6-runner event at Perth (2m) when last seen in mid-July, beating the reopposing Garde Des Champs by 10 lengths. Timefigure supported that performance so can pick up from where he left off upped another 8 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hexham 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 1m7f133y Goo 147 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 78 par14/065OR 784 @ Perth 13/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 80 · 2m Gd 142 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Hexham 07/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m7f133y Goo 146 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 86 par7/114OR 865 @ Sedgefield 13/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 86 · 2m77y Sft 158 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 86 par5 @ Hexham 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 1m7f133y GS 150 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 81 par9/055OR 814 @ Hexham 19/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 89 · 1m7f133y Goo 149 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 89 par5 @ Hexham 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m4f15y Gd 166 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 102 par6/065OR 1023 @ Hexham 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 102 · 1m7f133y Gd 145 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 102 par4 @ Perth 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 110 · 2m Gd 166 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 110 par12/074OR 110projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Perth41st2nd−1
2026-06-21Hexham31st1st0
2026-06-06Hexham54th6th−2
2026-05-19Hexham41st2nd−1
2026-05-09Hexham51st3rd−2
2025-12-28Catterick5−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0613/116/0612/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength90%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 3.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
13/07/20252nd2/189%83%-0.06
07/11/20254th9/276%67%-0.10
13/11/20254th7/282%40%-0.42
09/05/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
19/05/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
06/06/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
21/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
12/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09