1
Duke Of Luckley
9yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 125
Kelso · In Memory Of Rossie Maitland-Carew Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Stratford | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Worcester | 4 | −1 | ||
| 2025-09-16 | Uttoxeter | 4 | −1 | ||
| 2025-08-21 | Newton Abbot | 2 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 3.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |
| 23/10/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 22/11/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/05/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/06/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 20/07/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |