Carlotuk
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |