9
Cloudy Bay
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |