5
Polyester Bride
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 25/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |