Q Bond
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 50
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2024 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 03/12/2024 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/01/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/02/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 04/03/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/03/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 08/04/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 24/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |