3
Cole's Valentine
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 70
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2024 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |