11
Completely Elegant
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 59
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-11-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/11/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 16/01/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |