10
Early Delivery
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 75
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |