4
Lu's Redemption
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 87
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
50%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |