Pageant Princess
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 76
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |