1
Redwhiteandtacos
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 77
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
50%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 31/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |