Shotgun Margaret
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 74
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |