5
Brand New Dance
4yo Filly · 8-12
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 01/06/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |