3
Christina Of Milan
4yo Filly · 8-12
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-11-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 10/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |