11
Elmigdar
3yo Filly · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |