13
Hot Cocoa
3yo Filly · 8-8
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 27% | -0.60 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |