14
Thy Name Is Woman
5yo Mare · 8-12
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |