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Ardnamurchan

3yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 70

Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Marble Handicap · 5f 10y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ardad filly out of a half-sister to yard's high-class sprinter Twilight Son. Confirmed debut promise when a narrow winner of an ordinary Windsor maiden 6 weeks ago. Work to do from her opening mark but she has the profile to do much better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 12425/0554 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 5f21y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Windsor41st0th+1
2026-05-25Leicester54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/053/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -43.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20264th40/10%67%+0.67
03/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24