Bellini Spirit
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 56
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Marble Handicap · 5f 10y
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 7.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Windsor | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Lingfield | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/05/2026 | 18th | 150/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |