12
Cabeza De Llave
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 50
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Marble Handicap · 5f 10y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Salisbury | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Windsor | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 29/06/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 42% | -0.16 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |