Good Earth
9yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 68
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Marble Handicap · 5f 10y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sandown | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 4 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 18th | 40/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |