8
Avicenna
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 103
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Fortune Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 16th | 16th | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Newmarket | 1 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Doncaster | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Doncaster | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 16th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |