1
Balmacara
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 99
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Fortune Stakes (Listed) · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Haydock | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 2 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 1 | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Doncaster | 2 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 16th | 9/1 | 53% | 6% | -0.46 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 04/10/2025 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 7% | -0.19 |
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |