IvyArcIvyArc
4

Crown Of Oaks

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 103

Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Fortune Stakes (Listed) · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quickly developed into a smart performer last season but has been a little disappointing in just 2 outings this year. The first-time tongue tie he wore when only ninth in 1¼m course handicap last time is quickly discarded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength24%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 05/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f GS 1335/1024 @ Newbury 12/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m7y Goo 1335 @ Redcar 26/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 7f219y GF 13326/0554 @ Ayr 28/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 79 · 1m2f Goo 127 · beat its mark28/07/2025 · OR 79 par3 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 85 · 1m1f212y Sft 129 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 85 par6/093OR 85BHA86 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 86 · 1m2f Goo 128 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 86 par2 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 99 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 99 par18/102OR 991 @ Curragh 28/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 104 · 1m2f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 104 par2 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 104 · 1m1f209y GS 142 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 104 par29/082OR 104projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown29th10th−1
2026-06-28Curragh17th7th+0
2025-10-18Ascot21st2nd−1
2025-09-14CurraghBHA863rd12th−8
2025-09-06Ascot31st4th−2
2025-07-28Ayr41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1028/0718/1029/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/10/20243rd12/137%82%+0.45
12/04/20253rd8/1196%82%-0.14
26/05/20253rd1/398%33%-0.65
28/07/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
06/09/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
14/09/20253rd10/1195%90%-0.05
18/10/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
28/06/20267th6/168%0%-0.68
29/08/20269th5/174%20%-0.54