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10

Pacific Mission

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 103

Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Fortune Stakes (Listed) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended her 2-y-o season when excellent seconds in Group 2 May Hill and Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf. Back in that sort of form when second in listed race at Haydock (1m, good to firm) last month and possibly unsuited by soft ground when only seventh in Atalanta here since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 25/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 12825/0735 @ Kempton 13/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 1281 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/091C0 @ Del Mar 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 101 par1 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 109 · 7f192y Gd 128 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 109 par15/051OR 1091 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 109 · 1m113y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 107 · 7f212y Goo 123 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 107 par8/081OR 1071 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 105 · 1m GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 105 par29/081OR 105projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown17th7th+0
2026-08-08Haydock12nd2nd0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs13rd3rd+0
2026-05-15York15th5th0
2025-10-31Del Mar?2nd1st+1
2025-09-11Doncaster12nd2nd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0731/108/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20256th6/168%17%-0.52
13/08/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
11/09/20252nd11/142%86%+0.44
31/10/20252nd12/137%91%+0.54
15/05/20265th3/184%33%-0.51
06/06/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
08/08/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
29/08/20267th18/15%33%+0.28