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5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 109

Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Fortune Stakes (Listed) · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

6f listed winner for Kevin Ryan and bounced back to his very best in a first-time blinkers and tongue tie combination when defying a big weight in 7f Newcastle handicap on reappearance for new yard in June. His stamina for this trip has to be taken on trust but he holds good form claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 21/09/2024 · Pos 11th of 25 · OR 105 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark21/09/2024 · OR 105 par21/092OR 1052 @ York 12/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 105 · 6f Sft 137 · beat its mark12/10/2024 · OR 105 par1 @ Doncaster 09/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 109 · 6f2y Sft 131 · beat its mark09/11/2024 · OR 109 par9/111OR 1091 @ Haydock 31/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 109 · 7f37y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 109 par1 @ York 28/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 109 · 7f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 109 par28/061OR 1091 @ Curragh 20/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 109 · 7f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/07/2025 · OR 109 par1 @ Doncaster 13/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 109 · 7f6y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 109 par13/091OR 1091 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 107 · 7f Goo 128 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 107 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 105 · 7f14y Sta 142 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 105 par27/062OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Newcastle21st2nd−1
2025-10-04Redcar15th5th0
2025-09-13Doncaster17th7th+0
2025-07-20Curragh18th8th+0
2025-06-28York12nd2nd+0
2025-05-31Haydock14th4th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0931/0513/0927/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength80%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/202411th14/126%58%+0.32
12/10/20242nd11/271%95%+0.24
09/11/20241st10/382%100%+0.18
31/05/20254th28/10%73%+0.73
28/06/20252nd8/158%86%+0.28
20/07/20258th3/184%22%-0.62
13/09/20257th8/158%40%-0.18
04/10/20255th9/276%50%-0.26
27/06/20261st22/10%100%+1.00