7
Lightning Glory
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 77
Sandown · Inkerman Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength98%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.17 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |