5
Luminare
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 77
Sandown · Inkerman Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 29/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |