11
Medway Queen
4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 67
Sandown · Inkerman Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Ffos Las | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -20.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 29/06/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |