12
Silken Bay
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 71
Sandown · Inkerman Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Haydock | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Southwell | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |