9
Sydney Rock
3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 73
Sandown · Inkerman Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Ffos Las | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Salisbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |