8
Thursday Girl
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 77
Sandown · Inkerman Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sandown | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |