IvyArcIvyArc
3

Asset

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 79

Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Handicap · 1m 1f 209y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

From a smart family and made the most of a good opportunity when landing the odds in 3-runner maiden at Pontefract (1m) in July. Good placed efforts in handicaps since, beaten only by a useful filly at Bath 2 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS10/1023 @ Lingfield 26/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/0533 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m1f201y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/0634 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 75 · 1m31y GF 125 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 75 par13/074OR 754 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 77 · 1m6y Goo 128 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 77 par26/074OR 774 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 77 · 1m2f Std 127 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 77 par11/084OR 774 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 1m3f137y Gd 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 78 par2/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath42nd2nd0
2026-08-11Lingfield43rd3rd0
2026-07-26Pontefract41st1st0
2026-07-13Windsor42nd2nd0
2026-06-14Salisbury33rd2nd+1
2026-05-26Lingfield32nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1013/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20253rd12/137%60%+0.23
26/05/20262nd1/297%67%-0.31
14/06/20263rd11/1094%60%-0.34
13/07/20262nd7/282%90%+0.08
26/07/20261st2/1399%100%+0.01
11/08/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
02/09/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04