7
Barbury Boy
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 76
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Handicap · 1m 1f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sandown | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 26/11/2025 | 11th | 125/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 40% | -0.56 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |