10
Saxophonist
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 72
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Handicap · 1m 1f 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 30% | -0.44 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |