10
Pangbourne
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 56
Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Mosaic Fillies' Handicap · 1m 1f 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Ffos Las | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Epsom Downs | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/02/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |