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3

Sterling Fortune

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 67

Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Mosaic Fillies' Handicap · 1m 1f 209y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran her best race yet when fourth at Wolverhampton on handicap bow 2 weeks ago but the fact she was beaten almost 3 lengths proves she still has work to do off this sort of mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 7f Sta 1286/0554 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f3y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS10/0645 @ Southwell 05/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1285/0755 @ Yarmouth 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 70 · 7f3y GF 128 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 70 par15/075OR 705 @ Windsor 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m31y GF 128 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 68 par10/085OR 685 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m1f105y Std 135 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 68 par1/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton54th4th0
2026-08-10Windsor53rd3rd0
2026-07-15Yarmouth53rd3rd0
2026-07-05Southwell55th5th0
2026-06-10Yarmouth45th4th+1
2026-05-06Kempton510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0510/065/0715/0710/081/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/05/202610th22/10%31%+0.31
10/06/20265th100/10%60%+0.60
05/07/20265th22/10%64%+0.64
15/07/20263rd13/266%50%-0.16
10/08/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
01/09/20264th18/15%67%+0.61