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Talitha Rouge

3yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 67

Sandown · Trainor Stone & Tile Mosaic Fillies' Handicap · 1m 1f 209y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

57%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Was proving consistent rather than progressive until taking a big step forward when off the mark in good style at Redcar last week, settling the race in a matter of strides. Obvious claims under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m2f1y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS26/0543 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 1m4f8y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/0633 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m2f5y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS7/0735 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m1f209y Goo 135 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 68 par23/075OR 685 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 67 · 1m4f10y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 67 par15/085OR 675 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 1m2f1y Goo 134 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 67 par9/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Redcar51st1st0
2026-08-15Ripon52nd2nd0
2026-07-23Sandown56th6th0
2026-07-07Pontefract33rd1st+2
2026-06-16Thirsk34th2nd+2
2026-05-26Redcar43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0516/067/0723/0715/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/05/20263rd20/10%60%+0.60
16/06/20264th5/174%25%-0.49
07/07/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
23/07/20266th3/184%17%-0.68
15/08/20262nd9/488%67%-0.21
09/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12